Decline in Russia’s GDP in Q4 could amount to 3.7-3.8% — minister

The lowest point of the recession has passed in June and July of this year.

The decline in Russia's GDP in the Q4 of 2015 and the year as a whole year could reach 3.7-3.8%, the Russian Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said Friday.

"The lowest point [of decline - TASS] was in the Q2 of this year - minus 4.6%. And minus 4.1% in the Q3. We expect that in the Q4 the figure will be less than 4%, could be 3.7% or 3.8%," he said.

The Minister noted that the lowest point of the recession has passed in June and July of this year. "Starting from August the month-on-month figure wasn’t negative, that is - in some months it was zero, in others - slightly positive. In particular - plus 0.3% in September," Ulyukayev said.

Since 2016 the Ministry expects to restore economic growth it was forecasted to reach 0.7%, the Minister said. "In 2016 somewhere in the Q2 we should reach positive figures year-on-year. The Q2 of 2016 against the Q2 of 2015 will be positive. We have proceeded from a premise that this is due to the gradual restoration of consumer demand and that economic stocks will be restoring," he explained.

According to him, that is why slightly positive figures in the production sector and agriculture are expected. After that investment activity, investment demand will also begin to recover. "This is supported by the situation in the banking sector. We have overcome the liquidity crisis, currently both household deposits and corporate deposits are growing quite rapidly, by about 15% per year," he said.

The Minister said that inflation remains at a high level. "We are confident that it will decline rapidly because the effect of the devaluation ceases to be effective, and because the situation is improving on food markets, plus the base effect of last year will help this change," he explained.

Reducing inflation is the reason for the Russian Central Bank to reduce the key rate, the Minister added.

First published by TASS.

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