Sergei Lavrov. Source: AFP/East-News
Although a Russian-proposed plan to lift international sanctions against Iran and ease international tensions in the Middle East was discussed with optimism by Iranian and Russian authorities last week, attempts to resolve the nuclear standoff seem to have been going around in circles. While representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry and some experts view the plan as a positive signal from Moscow, other pundits question its possible effectiveness and claim that the Iranian nuclear program may remain a thorny issue for the international community and U.S.-Russia relations.
The initiative to lift economic sanctions against Iran was proposed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this July, and has since been dubbed the “Lavrov's plan” in the mass media. It calls for the international community to cancel restrictions against Iran in a step-by-step exchange for concessions from Tehran: if Iran provides data on its nuclear program to the International Atomic Energy Agency and meets all of the organization’s requirements, then specific sanctions will be cancelled reciprocally.
Mutuality and a
step-by-step policy are what Russia is seeking by proposing this plan,
said Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, in an interview
to the Kommersant Daily newspaper. He described Lavrov’s initiative as a
good roadmap to achieve a breakthrough and strengthen political ties
with the West and the United States in particular.
Unlike
Ryabkov, some Russian and American experts are raising their eyebrows at
the Lavrov plan because Washington is glued to its traditionally strict
policies toward Iran, and seems to be reluctant to change its political
course. “I do not see anything really new in Lavrov’s plan,” said
Gordon Hahn, an expert on Russia at the Monterey Institute for
International Studies in California. “I think it will be met with
indifference [in Washington], given that it does little to resolve
anything.”
Lavrov’s plan is hardly likely to be implemented
successfully, said Evgeny Minchenko, the director of the Moscow-based
International Institute for Political Expertise. “Although America
understands Russia’s position, they do not want to come up with a
compromise,” he said. “They may keep following their traditional policy
because they still want Russia to go along with America.”
Nevertheless,
Lavrov’s plan has its supporters. Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor in chief
of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine, sees the initiative as a
positive sign despite the fact that it doesn’t contain specific details
and it’s difficult to predict whether it will actually be implemented.
“Russia is correct in making an attempt to move the problem out of the
current stalemate, because sooner or later the United States and Israel
will have to answer the question of ‘what is to be done?’ if Iran gains
the status of a nuclear power,” he said. “The method of economic
sanctions has been proven ineffective, so the United States should be
interested in the plan.”
Gregory Feifer, an expert on
U.S.-Russian relations and a senior correspondent at Radio Liberty, is
also optimistic about Lavrov’s initiative. “I can say that if Russia
does nudge Iran toward cooperating with the international community,
that would only be a good thing, and rather than complicate relations
with the United States, it would help improve them,” he said. Worsening
relations between Iran and Russia due to the economic restrictions were
the reason behind Moscow’s attempts to end the sanctions on Iran, he
said. Minchenko echoed this view, saying that mutual economic interest
and the need to maintain military trade with Tehran is essential for
Moscow.
When the U.N.-imposed sanctions entered into force in
2010, Russia ceased shipments of strategic weapons and missiles agreed
on in a 2007 contract, costing Russia around $800 billion. Lavrov
further said this February that the spillover effects of the embargo
among the Iranian population had driven Russia to oppose the sanctions,
reported RIA Novosti. “Further sanctions will mean the stifling of the
Iranian economy and the creation of social problems for the average
people,” he said. “To tell the truth, we will not be able to support
them [the sanctions] anymore.”
The Iranian nuclear program and
Lavrov’s plan may be an important international issue in connection with
the ongoing U.S. presidential campaign as well. Although Americans are
concerned about domestic problems such as unemployment, healthcare
reform and the economic downturn, U.S. presidential candidates may spout
tough rhetoric against Iran to bolster their foreign policy credentials
during the election season. Feifer said that he doesn’t rule out the
possibility that Barack Obama will “try to tout spearheading new
sanctions as one of his foreign policy successes.”
Likewise, Hahn
said that American presidential candidates will focus on the Iranian
nuclear problem to prove their international proficiency despite the
fact that “the American voter is interested in one question: the economy
and jobs.” Iran’s nuclear program and apparent efforts to acquire
nuclear weapons should be a major concern for any U.S. administration,
but Obama’s administration “appears to be less concerned than any
Republican or centrist Democratic administration would be,” he said.
Hahn
argued that "there does not seem to be a resolution to the Iranian
problem that does not lead to the use of force at this point.”
Nonetheless, due to the U.S. economic situation, the war against Libya,
Afghanistan, and Iraq, “any use of force against Iran is out of the
question” unless Iranian actions pose an immediate threat to Israel or
to U.S. national security, he said.
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