Drawing by Andrey Popov
Any
foreign trip by the reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong-il arouses a
great deal of interest, as he practically never leaves his country.
Therefore, his recent visit to Siberia was an extraordinary event.
Since
the first half of the 1990s, when the North Korean nuclear programme
became a global issue, negotiations have gone through different stages
but the basic model has remained unchanged. Outside forces have always
perceived Pyongyang as an aberration that survived the collapse of
socialism and a clear threat to its neighbours. In turn, North Korea has
continued to project an image of extravagant outcast that is capable of
anything, because its top leaders feel this is the only way to protect
the regime against pressure and potential overthrow. North Korea has
been building up its potential in the most ostentatious way so as to
prevent anyone from even being tempted to test its strength. Western
countries and South Korea pursued a carrot-and-stick policy. But the
pressure only radicalised the regime, even though the country needed
economic assistance to stave off a disaster. North Korea quickly learned
that blackmail can do the trick.
However, the belief that North
Korea is intimidating others to extract economic benefits has led
Washington and Seoul down the wrong road. Under the current model, North
Korea is promised lavish aid in exchange for renouncing its nuclear and
missile programmes. This could have worked 15 years ago. But since the
late 1990s, after the events in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, Pyongyang
has viewed its nuclear weapons as the only guarantee of its security
rather than as a bargaining chip. North Korea’s relations with the
international community is, therefore, caught in a vicious circle.
Russia
has proposed a new approach that would change the paradigm. The
construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to the south of the Korean
Peninsula would change Pyongyang’s status. A sponger prone to blackmail
could become a partner in a major project, as was the case with Ukraine
in relation to Russia and Georgia to Azerbaijan. North Korea would get
not only gas, but also transit fees. But, most important, it will be
brought into a system of economic interdependence that could drastically
change the atmosphere in the region.
Many obstacles remain.
First, Pyongyang’s behaviour follows some logic (contrary to views in
the West), its vigilance bordering on paranoia carries the risk of
surprises. Second, Seoul may not be happy about the deal. South Korea
would also stand to gain from the project, but its government headed by
Lee Myung-bak is highly critical of the reconciliation policy of his
predecessors. Third, the US attitude is not quite clear.
The
Russian proposal creates an opportunity for progress. And it would be in
everyone’s interest to make some. But East Asia is too important,
especially in light of China’s growing influence, and Washington does
not want to lose the initiative. The question is whether the US will
interpret the Russian proposal as an attempt to seize the initiative.
China should not object, because it welcomes anything that can reduce
tensions and consolidate the status quo.
For Russia, this Korean
project is a real chance to enhance its position in Asia, which will be
its main goal in the next few years. Moscow enjoys the advantage of
being viewed as a neutral force and this suggests that progress is
possible.
Fyodor Lukyanov is chief editor of the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”.
All rights reserved by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
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