Source: Drawing by Alexey Iorsh
This year has been replete with important, and sometimes historic events, globally and regionally, notably the Arab Spring and the eurozone crisis. New and ever more convincing evidence has shown that a radical transformation of global governance is taking place. The co-ordinates of international relations have been shifting towards development issues central to world politics. At the same time, the kind of transformation that reflects the endgame of processes that began at the turn of the Seventies is gaining pace, whether we look at the Arab world or the crisis of liberal capitalism.
There is no doubt that, along with the positive effects, this shift in international relations has a downside, too. For example, the collapse of established perceptions of values that emerged in the postwar period that were accepted as constants. But the former system of values has continued to exist by inertia among the overwhelming majority of world political elites over the past 20 years. Inertia is perhaps the most accurate reflection of that reality, which was really never anything more than wishful thinking.
One can only wonder how such self-delusion could have survived for so long after
the end of the Cold War, which, as has now been brought home to many, marked
the end of the old world and a deferred beginning to the new world that has
come to be referred to as the “fast-changing” world. As the American pundit
Leslie Gelb wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine, many in the West had made a
fundamental mistake in assessing the situation at the end of the Cold War.
This is understandable because, like any event on a historic scale, it could
not have been prepared for, either intellectually or politically. In effect,
not only the geopolitical balance in the world had been upset, but competition
between different development models and values had been eliminated, even if
temporarily and only at the level of illusions. Lack of competition contributed
to a sense of the “end of history” and complacency, which, in turn, engendered
self-destructive trends in the domestic and foreign policies of a number of
states.
As a result, there was a growing similarity between the main international
players, who all saw a narrowing gap between the declared foreign policy goals
and available resources for achieving them, in line with the dictum: “You must
cut your coat according to your cloth.” This kind of convergence went a long
way towards promoting a unifying and positive agenda in international
relations. The attitude to that key trend may range from total rejection to a
wish to live in one’s own world engendered by a complex of national
mythologies, instincts and prejudices. Yet I think that trend holds out a
promise of overcoming the current contradictions between various countries and
groups of countries, including the US and the European Union, BRICS
and a whole number of leading regional powers. The formats for resolving these
contradictions are the UN Security Council, where many of these countries are
represented, but also wider structures such as the G8 and the G20.
Another optimistic sign characterising modern international relations is the
growing tendency for foreign policy to become less and less ideology-driven.
This pragmatic approach is widely recognised by virtually all leading
international players, including the EU, Russia
and China.
Britain
is no exception. I would attribute the start of normalisation of
Russian-British relations to a wish to assert pragmatic national interests – as
a constant of foreign policy – and to promote them through diversified
networking diplomacy. We are not talking about co-opting Russia or Great
Britain into this or that system of alliances, described at one time as
“European entanglements”.
Fyodor Dostoyevsky, in his Pushkin speech in 1880, said that Russia had a
mission to promote “a final resolution of European contradictions”. During its
Soviet incarnation, Russia
coped with that task brilliantly with regard to the West European countries.
The time has now come to tackle it on a European scale, at the level of all the
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) member states. This
is the main thrust of the idea of creating a Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian
security community, which was supported at the OSCE foreign ministers’ meeting in Astana a year
ago. The recent OSCE foreign ministers’ meeting in Vilnius and, indeed, the discussion of
Euro ABM, has demonstrated that the aim
is easier to
proclaim than to accomplish.
Even so, the experience of the past 12 months, disappointing though it may be,
shows that positive trends in international relations are growing stronger and
the price of any alternatives, including actions outside international law,
bypassing the United Nations Security Council and consensus politics in
general, is growing. One need hardly be more specific than that but one might
hope that the world and each country individually is on the threshold of a
radical reappraisal of values in domestic and foreign policy – and that
provides a solid foundation for optimism concerning the future of the world
next year.
Alexander Yakovenko is ambassador of the Russian Federation to the United Kingdom.
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