Net capital outflow from Russia could slightly exceed $90 billion but is unlikely to be over $100 billion in 2014, says Russian Finance Ministry long-term strategic planning department head Maxim Oreshkin.
"If we look at the capital outflow for nine months published by the Central Bank [$85 billion], it includes changes on the Central Bank's balances, which is kind of pseudo-outflow, without which it's about $77 billion. In principle, even $90 billion was quite a realistic scenario, but it could be slightly more," Oreshkin said in commenting on Central Bank First Deputy Chair Ksenia Yudayeva's statement to the effect that the Central Bank could revise its 2014 capital outflow forecast of $90 billion in December.
Oreshkin suggested that this forecast should not be revised radically. "They could slightly revise it up, but, again, the outflow in the third quarter amounted to $13 billion. If we assume that it is going to be the same in the fourth quarter, then it will be $90 billion. But it looks like it is going to be slightly more in the fourth than in the third quarter," he said.
Asked whether capital outflow could exceed $100 billion in 2014, Oreshkin said this is unlikely.
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