Russian GDP shrank at 0.5 percent annual rate in Nov, first contraction since 2009

Russian GDP shrank 0.5 percent in November in annual terms, the first contraction to be registered since 2009, Economic Development Ministry said in its economic monitoring report.

Russian GDP shrank 0.5 percent in November in annual terms, the first contraction to be registered since 2009, Economic Development Ministry said in its economic monitoring report.

"GDP shrank 0.5 percent in November year-on-year, according to Economic Development Ministry estimates, the first such contraction since October 2009," the ministry reported.

GDP grew 0.6 percent in January-November, it said.

"The main factor contributing to the GDP contraction in November was the steep decline in manufacturing output. Slowdowns in construction, wholesale trade and agriculture also continued," the report says.

Seasonally adjusted GDP declined 0.2 percent in November compared with 0.1 percent growth in October.

The extractive industries, utilities and the retail trade sector had a favorable impact on GDP.

The Economic Development Ministry revised its year-on-year growth estimate for October to 0.5 percent from nil previously (to a seasonally adjusted positive 0.1 percent from negative 0.1 percent) in light of updated construction and fuel and energy export data from Rosstat.

Seasonally adjusted investment in fixed assets declined 1.9 percent in November compared with October, when investment posted month-on-month growth. In annual terms, investment in fixed assets fell 4.8 percent in November compared with a year-on-year decline of 2.9 percent in October.

Industrial production in November declined 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis following growth of 0.2 percent in October. In annual terms, industrial production fell 0.4 percent in November compared with growth of 2.9 percent in October, including a decline of 3 percent in manufacturing, following 3.6 percent growth in October.

Seasonally adjusted retail trade rose to 0.2 percent in November compared with October, after registering zero month-on-month growth in October. Retail trade in November rose 1.8 percent year-on-year compared with growth of 1.6 percent in October.

The Economic Development Ministry expects GDP to contract 0.8 percent in 2015 with oil priced at $80 per barrel. At the end of December, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said GDP might contract 3 percent in 2015 with oil at $60 per barrel. The Economic Development Ministry is not scheduled to present updated forecasts until April.

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