Probability of conservative scenario for Russian economy in next 3 years is low — ministry

The conservative forecast contains the assumption that the oil price will be $40 a barrel and will stay at that level through the next three years.

Russia's economy will slightly decline in 2016 if the price for oil is $40 per barrel, but the probability of this scenario is low, Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev told reporters on Thursday.

He said his ministry has prepared three variants of macroeconomic outlook for 2016-2018: basic, target and conservative. The last one is based on the presumption that the price of oil is $ 40 per barrel in 2016-2018.

"The figures need to be clarified yet, but the next year at 40 dollars a barrel there would be a slight decrease (of Russia’s GDP — TASS)," Ulyukayev said.

According to the minister, the basic version of the outlook should form the core for the next three-year budget for 2016-2018.

Target outlook differs from the basic one by involvement of some of the mechanisms of development.

The conservative forecast is "a test version, it contains the assumption that the oil price will be $40 a barrel and will stay at that level through the next three years," the minister said.

According to Ulyukayev, although a conservative forecast envisages some decline in GDP in 2016, there is "no apocalypse there."

The Minister said he is confident that the Russian financial system will sustain such pressure from oil prices.

But he added that the figures for the basic and conservative scenarios are yet to be confirmed.

"Yesterday, at the meeting with the President, we agreed to do this work, it will take more time," Ulyukayev said, adding that a revised version of the forecast should be ready in September.

The probability of the conservative scenario is low, "but we have to figure it out, we do not completely rule it out," the minister said.

Ulyukayev also said that he does not think that the variant when the price for oil is $30 per barrel is probable. "So far we won’t get ready for that,"he said.

First published by TASS.

All rights reserved by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

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